LAC @ LV – Week 2 2025
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
20@9
LAC BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 67%Our line: LAC -5.9
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.9
OUR LINE
-202
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.240
-0.024Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.083Defense EPA / play+0.024
43.1%Offense success %37.6%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 11. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 |
| Our fair price | -202 | +202 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9 SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7 SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
| LV@LACW4 2023 | LV 17, LAC 24 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.9. The market has LAC at -3.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, MON 10:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LV 14, LAC 31 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
