Chargers vs Raiders – Week 2 2025
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
20@9
LAC BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Las Vegas Raiders 9.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LAC 67%Our line: LAC -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | LAC | LV | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 | 64.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.240
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
43.1% (19)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 11. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs LV
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.9. The market has LAC at -3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 20, LV 9. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, MON 10:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against LV -0.240.
