Giants vs Cowboys – Week 2 2025
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
37@40
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 37, Dallas Cowboys 40.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 70%Our line: DAL -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
| SOURCE | NYG | DAL | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -238 | 68.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
42.1% (25)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 3. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.1. The market has DAL at -4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, NYG 37, DAL 40. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -4.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 2, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYG -0.075 against DAL -0.070.
