NYG @ DAL – Week 2 2025
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
37@40
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 70%Our line: DAL -7.1
DAL
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.1
OUR LINE
-235
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.087Defense EPA / play+0.167
42.1%Offense success %46.6%
47.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 3. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -238 |
| Our fair price | +235 | -235 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW1 2023 | DAL 40, NYG 0 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.1. The market has DAL at -4.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 17, NYG 34 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYG -0.075 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
