Jaguars vs Bengals – Week 2 2025
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
27@31
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Cincinnati Bengals 31.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: CIN 71%Our line: CIN -7.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -7.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SOURCE | JAX | CIN | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 | 63.6% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
44.4% (15)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 4. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW4 2026 | JAX 22, CIN 17 | JAX | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.3. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, JAX 27, CIN 31. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 22, CIN 17 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against CIN -0.138.
