JAX @ CIN – Week 2 2025
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
27@31
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 71%Our line: CIN -7.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.3
OUR LINE
-241
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.130
44.4%Offense success %45.5%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 4. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +241 | -241 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.3. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, JAX 31 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
