Broncos vs Colts – Week 2 2025
DEN
IND
DEN
AWAY
28@29
IND BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 28, Indianapolis Colts 29.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: DEN 61%Our line: DEN -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
54%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SOURCE | DEN | IND | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 | 54.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.068
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
44.2% (16)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but IND won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@DENW15 2024 | IND 13, DEN 31 | DEN | W |
| IND@DENW5 2022 | IND 12, DEN 9 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs IND
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.7. The market has DEN at -2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, DEN 28, IND 29. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, IND 13, DEN 31 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against IND +0.068.
