DEN @ IND – Week 2 2025
DEN
IND
DEN
AWAY
28@29
IND BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 61%Our line: DEN -3.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-155
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.068
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.072
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.004
44.2%Offense success %46.3%
36.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but IND won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -155 | +155 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8 SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@DENW15 2024 | IND 13, DEN 31 | DEN | W |
| IND@DENW5 2022 | IND 12, DEN 9 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.7. The market has DEN at -2.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, IND 13, DEN 31 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
