2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ IND – Week 2 2025
DEN
IND
DEN
AWAY
28@29
IND +1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 61%Projected margin: -0.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but IND won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 1.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@DENW15 2024 | IND 13, DEN 31 | DEN | W |
| IND@DENW5 2022 | IND 12, DEN 9 | IND | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES