Colts vs Broncos – Week 5 2022
IND
DEN
IND
AWAY
12@9
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 12, Denver Broncos 9.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 4 Broncos.
Model confidence: IND 58%Our line: IND -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.141Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.168 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
-0.027 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
39.8% (29)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@INDW2 2025 | DEN 28, IND 29 | DEN | L |
| IND@DENW15 2024 | IND 13, DEN 31 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DEN
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 2.8. The market has IND at +3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 12, DEN 9. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 6.2 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, DEN 28, IND 29 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: IND -0.141 against DEN -0.060.
