2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ CAR – Week 5 2022
SF
CAR
SF
AWAY
37@15
SF +22
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 74%Projected margin: -7.6
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 22. Off by 14.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -234 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
200.5SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@SFW12 2025 | CAR 9, SF 20 | SF | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES