49ers vs Panthers – Week 5 2022
SF
CAR
SF
AWAY
37@15
SF BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 37, Carolina Panthers 15.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 49ers, 3 Panthers.
Model confidence: SF 74%Our line: SF -8.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -8.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.085 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
-0.126 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
46.2% (6)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 8.5. Actual: 22. Off by 13.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs CAR
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 8.5. The market has SF at -6.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 37, CAR 15. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -6.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 7.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, CAR 9, SF 20 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against CAR -0.037.
