Chargers vs Browns – Week 5 2022
LAC
CLE
LAC
AWAY
30@28
LAC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 30, Cleveland Browns 28.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.001
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (10)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.014 (22)
44.1% (18)Offense success %44.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 2.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW9 2024 | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC | W |
| CLE@LACW5 2021 | CLE 42, LAC 47 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.0. The market has CLE at +1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 30, CLE 28. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 5, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, CLE 10 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against CLE -0.001.
