2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ CLE – Week 5 2022
LAC
CLE
LAC
AWAY
30@28
LAC +2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 50%Projected margin: -0.5
CLE
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.5 -- the model overestimated by 1.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
176.5SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW9 2024 | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC | W |
| CLE@LACW5 2021 | CLE 42, LAC 47 | CLE | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES