Browns vs Chargers – Week 5 2021
CLE
LAC
CLE
AWAY
42@47
LAC BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 42, Los Angeles Chargers 47.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: CLE 52%Our line: CLE -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
43.9% (19)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 5.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW9 2024 | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CLEW5 2022 | LAC 30, CLE 28 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LAC
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.7. The market has CLE at +2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, CLE 42, LAC 47. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +2.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, CLE 10 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: CLE +0.012 against LAC +0.061.
