CLE @ LAC – Week 5 2021
CLE
LAC
CLE
AWAY
42@47
LAC BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 52%Our line: CLE -0.7
CLE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-108
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.013Offense EPA / play+0.095
+0.001Defense EPA / play+0.033
43.9%Offense success %47.6%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 5.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +117 | -129 |
| Our fair price | -108 | +108 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9 SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
133.0 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Baker Mayfield3010 yd · 17 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1259 yd · 8 TD
D'Ernest Johnson534 yd · 3 TD
Kareem Hunt386 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Donovan Peoples-Jones34 rec · 597 yd · 3 TD
Jarvis Landry52 rec · 570 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW9 2024 | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CLEW5 2022 | LAC 30, CLE 28 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.7. The market has CLE at +2.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, CLE 10 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: CLE +0.012 against LAC +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
