2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ LAC – Week 5 2021
CLE
LAC
CLE
AWAY
42@47
LAC +5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 52%Projected margin: -1.4
CLE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.4
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LAC won. Projected margin was 1.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +117 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
133.0SEASON PPR
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW9 2024 | LAC 27, CLE 10 | LAC | W |
| LAC@CLEW5 2022 | LAC 30, CLE 28 | CLE | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES