Lions vs Vikings – Week 5 2021
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
17@19
MIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 17, Minnesota Vikings 19.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 64%Our line: MIN -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
42.0% (22)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.8. The market has MIN at -10.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, DET 17, MIN 19. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -10.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 5, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 2.0 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: DET -0.161 against MIN +0.035.
