DET @ MIN – Week 5 2021
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
17@19
MIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 64%Our line: MIN -4.8
MIN
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-177
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.063Offense EPA / play+0.017
+0.098Defense EPA / play-0.018
42.0%Offense success %41.4%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +346 | -418 |
| Our fair price | +177 | -177 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.8. The market has MIN at -10.0.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: DET -0.161 against MIN +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
