2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ MIN – Week 5 2021
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
17@19
MIN +2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 64%Projected margin: 5.1
MIN
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 2. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -418 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES