2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ PIT – Week 5 2021
DEN
PIT
DEN
AWAY
19@27
PIT +8
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 52%Projected margin: -1.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but PIT won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DENW2 2024 | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT | W |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES