Broncos vs Steelers – Week 5 2021
DEN
PIT
DEN
AWAY
19@27
PIT BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 19, Pittsburgh Steelers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 4 Steelers.
Model confidence: DEN 52%Our line: DEN -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.004Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
44.7% (14)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.8, the model overestimated by 8.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DENW2 2024 | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT | W |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PIT
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.8. The market has DEN at -2.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, DEN 19, PIT 27. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -2.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 5, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 13, DEN 6 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.004 against PIT -0.090.
