DEN @ PIT – Week 12 2026
DEN
PIT
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
FRI 3:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 62%Projected margin: -1.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.025
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.018
44.2%Offense success %44.0%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN backed by epa edge at 62%.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates 0.050 EPA/play on offense. PIT's defense allows 0.018. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
DEN is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
RED ZONE
DEN converts 82% in the red zone vs 67% for PIT. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in DEN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds3,322
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DENW2 2024 | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT | W |
| DEN@PITW5 2021 | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN | L |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PIT
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 1.7. The market has DEN at -1.5.
When do the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, FRI 3:00 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 13-6 in Week 2 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the Pittsburgh Steelers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
