Broncos vs Steelers – Week 12 2026
DEN
PIT
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
FRI 3:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Steelers at 62% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 62%Our line: DEN -4.0
80% range around our line: PIT by 13 to DEN by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SPORTSBOOK | DEN | PIT | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.041Net EPA / play-0.046
-0.066 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (21)
-0.025 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.000 (18)
39.9% (26)Offense success %41.7% (21)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our early forecast in DEN @ PIT (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 62% confidence and projects DEN by 4.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DENW2 2024 | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT | W |
| DEN@PITW5 2021 | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN | L |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PIT
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 62% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 4.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 62% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, FRI 3:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 13, DEN 6 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.041 against PIT -0.046.
