Commanders vs Cardinals – Week 12 2026
WAS
ARI
WAS
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Commanders over the Cardinals at 62% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: WAS 62%Our line: WAS -4.0
80% range around our line: ARI by 13 to WAS by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the WAS game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -4.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SPORTSBOOK | WAS | ARI | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -218 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.056Net EPA / play-0.142
-0.015 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (16)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.124 (29)
39.8% (27)Offense success %45.9% (12)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
WAS is our early forecast in WAS @ ARI (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 62% confidence and projects WAS by 4.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| ARI@WASW1 2023 | ARI 16, WAS 20 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ARI
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 62% win probability. The margin models project WAS by 4.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Washington Commanders at 62% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 42, ARI 14 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.056 against ARI -0.142.
