WAS @ ARI – Week 12 2026
WAS
ARI
WAS
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 65%Projected margin: -2.8
WAS
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.018
+0.142Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.6%Offense success %43.0%
47.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
WAS is our early forecast in WAS @ ARI (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 64.5% confidence and projects WAS by 2.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | WAS market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
Z.Ertz50 rec · 504 yd · 4 TD
J.Lane16 rec · 225 yd · 0 TD
VS
1,695PASSyds3,366
1,602RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| ARI@WASW1 2023 | ARI 16, WAS 20 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ARI
Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals?
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 65% win probability. The margin models project WAS by 2.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals game?
Washington Commanders, 42-14 in Week 4 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Arizona Cardinals?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Arizona Cardinals: WAS -0.137 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
