2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ WAS – Week 1 2023
ARI
WAS
ARI
AWAY
16@20
WAS +4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER B
PICK: WAS
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 68%Projected margin: 5.6
WAS
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 5.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4SEASON PPR
WAS
Sam Howell
QB
257.5SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
203.2SEASON PPR
Brian Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES