Cardinals vs Commanders – Week 1 2023
ARI
WAS
ARI
AWAY
16@20
WAS BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 16, Washington Commanders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: WAS 68%Our line: WAS -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -6.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
75%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | ARI | WAS | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 | 75.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.190
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
40.5% (25)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 6.5. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 6.5. The market has WAS at -7.0.
Washington Commanders won, ARI 16, WAS 20. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -7.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 42, ARI 14 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI -0.157 against WAS -0.190.
