ARI @ WAS – Week 1 2023
ARI
WAS
ARI
AWAY
16@20
WAS BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 68%Our line: WAS -6.5
WAS
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-217
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.157Net EPA / play-0.190
-0.071Offense EPA / play-0.106
+0.085Defense EPA / play+0.085
40.5%Offense success %41.0%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 6.5. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +217 | -217 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5 SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5 SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
146.4 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown51 rec · 574 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ARIW4 2024 | WAS 42, ARI 14 | ARI | L |
| WAS@ARIW2 2020 | WAS 15, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 6.5. The market has WAS at -7.0.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 42, ARI 14 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI -0.157 against WAS -0.190.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
