Jaguars vs Colts – Week 1 2023
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
31@21
JAX BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Indianapolis Colts 21.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 73%Our line: JAX -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -8.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
| SOURCE | JAX | IND | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +170 | 65.1% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
42.1% (15)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 8.2. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project JAX by 8.2. The market has JAX at -4.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 31, IND 21. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -4.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: JAX -0.034 against IND -0.019.
