2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ IND – Week 1 2023
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
31@21
JAX +10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 73%Projected margin: -5.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-5.9
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 10. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -205 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES