Lions vs Chiefs – Week 1 2023
DET
KC
DET
AWAY
21@20
DET BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 21, Kansas City Chiefs 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions.
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SOURCE | DET | KC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 | 64.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.107
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
46.1% (6)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but DET won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@KCW6 2025 | DET 17, KC 30 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.8. The market has KC at -4.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 21, KC 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -4.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DET 17, KC 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: DET +0.093 against KC +0.107.
