49ers vs Steelers – Week 1 2023
SF
PIT
SF
AWAY
30@7
SF BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 7.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: SF 61%Our line: SF -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
52%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | SF | PIT | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +100 | 52.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
51.1% (1)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 23. Off by 19.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs PIT
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 3.8. The market has SF at -1.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 30, PIT 7. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -1.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 1.5 points.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against PIT -0.013.
