DAL @ NYG – Week 1 2023
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
40@0
DAL BY 40
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 67%Our line: DAL -5.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.8
OUR LINE
-199
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.220Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.106Offense EPA / play-0.174
-0.114Defense EPA / play-0.019
47.4%Offense success %37.9%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 40. Off by 34.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 36.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 |
| Our fair price | -199 | +199 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2 SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8 SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott4516 yd · 36 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Tony Pollard1005 yd · 6 TD
Rico Dowdle361 yd · 2 TD
Dak Prescott242 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb135 rec · 1749 yd · 12 TD
Jake Ferguson71 rec · 761 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 67% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.8. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 17, NYG 34 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
