2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ NYG – Week 1 2023
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
40@0
DAL +40
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 67%Projected margin: -3.2
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 40. Off by 36.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 36.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6SEASON PPR
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES