Cowboys vs Giants – Week 1 2026
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
20@28
NYG BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 63%Our line: DAL -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.066Net EPA / play-0.054
+0.127 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (17)
+0.193 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.036 (22)
47.9% (6)Offense success %42.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but NYG won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NYG
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.3. The market has DAL at -3.0.
New York Giants won, DAL 20, NYG 28. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 2.3 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 17, NYG 34 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Giants: DAL -0.066 against NYG -0.054.
