Saints vs Lions – Week 1 2026
NO
DET
NO
AWAY
30@31
DET BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.148Net EPA / play+0.029
-0.054 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
+0.094 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
43.1% (15)Offense success %49.1% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 1. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@NOW13 2023 | DET 33, NO 28 | DET | W |
| NO@DETW4 2020 | NO 35, DET 29 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.9. The market has DET at -7.0.
Detroit Lions won, NO 30, DET 31. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 1, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 1.8 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 33, NO 28 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: NO -0.148 against DET +0.029.
