SF @ LA – Week 1 2026
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
@
THU 8:35 PM
WEEK 1 · 2026 SEASON
LA
HOME
OUR PICK
TIER B
PICK: LA
Model confidence: LA 65%Projected margin: -3.0
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
-195
LIVE ML
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors LA (B-tier, 65% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
LA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
LA has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against SF.
Net-positive signal profile for LA. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | -195 | Last observed market ML |
MODEL IMPLIED
62.3%
MARKET IMPLIED
66.1%
MODEL EDGE
-3.8%
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
