Patriots vs Seahawks – Week 1 2026
NE
SEA
NE
AWAY
10@13
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Patriots, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 65%Our line: SEA -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.060
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (25)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.133 (2)
45.4% (13)Offense success %41.5% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
OUR NUMBER
-3.0
CLV
+0.0
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@NEW2 2024 | SEA 23, NE 20 | SEA | W |
| NE@SEAW2 2020 | NE 30, SEA 35 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.1. The market has SEA at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, NE 10, SEA 13. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.3 above the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, WED 8:20 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 23, NE 20 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Seattle Seahawks: NE +0.055 against SEA +0.060.
