NFL WEEK 1 2026 PREDICTIONS & PICKS
16 GAMESUPDATED NOV 3, 2026
THE SHORT ANSWER
NoPunt went 9-7 straight up in Week 1 2026.
The most confident pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars at 79%, won 34-10.
Our most confident Week 1 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns, at 79% win probability.
No game on the Week 1 slate is a coin flip; every pick clears 55% win probability.
For survivor pools, the safest pick of the week is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns, at 79% win probability.
Before kickoff
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WHAT WE GOT WRONG
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Denver Broncos at 76% win probability lost 10-31.
The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 0-3 (0%) against a 58% all-time rate.
PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.
FILTER
QUESTIONS
Our safest Week 1 2026 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns, at 79% win probability.
No game in Week 1 2026 is a coin flip on our model; every pick clears 55% win probability.
NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 1, 2026, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.
NoPunt went 9-7 straight up in Week 1 2026.
For survivor pools, our model's safest Week 1 pick is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns, at 79% win probability.
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Denver Broncos at 76% win probability lost 10-31. The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 0-3 (0%) against a 58% all-time rate.