CONFIDENCE
CONFIDENCE POOL · WEEK 1
NFL CONFIDENCE POOL PICKS
Every Week 1game ranked by the model’s win probability, with confidence points assigned 16 down to 1and each game’s expected-points contribution shown.
16 pts
TOP PICK · JAX
94.3
EXPECTED POINTS
66.3%
OUR SU ACCURACY
THE SHORT ANSWER
For Week 1, put your top 16 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Cleveland Browns: our highest win probability of the week at 79%.
The full 16-game slate carries an expected 94.3 of 136 possible points if you follow our ranking and every win probability lands exactly as stated.
Your 1-point game (lowest confidence) is the Tennessee Titans at 60%, effectively a coin flip.
Our Week 1 top-points pick hit: the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cleveland Browns 34-10, worth all 16 points.
WEEK 1 POINTS, RANKED 16 DOWN TO 1
Ranked by the model’s win probability, highest first. Points run from 16(most confident) down to 1. Expected points = win probability × points assigned, summed for the 94.3-point total above, the method behind it, not a promise.
| # | Pick | Opponent | Win % | Points | Exp. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs CLE Against the spread, our pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5. | 79% | 16 | 12.6 |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | at KC Against the spread, our pick is Denver Broncos +2.5. | 76% | 15 | 11.4 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles Chargers | vs ARI Against the spread, our pick is Los Angeles Chargers -9.5. | 75% | 14 | 10.5 |
| 4 |  Philadelphia Eagles | vs WAS Against the spread, our pick is Philadelphia Eagles -5.5. | 71% | 13 | 9.2 |
| 5 |  Miami Dolphins | at LV Against the spread, our pick is Miami Dolphins +3.5. | 70% | 12 | 8.4 |
| 6 |  Chicago Bears | at CAR Against the spread, our pick is Chicago Bears -3.0. | 65% | 11 | 7.2 |
| 7 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs NE Against the spread, our pick is Seattle Seahawks -3.0. | 65% | 10 | 6.5 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs SF Against the spread, our pick is Los Angeles Rams -3.5. | 65% | 9 | 5.9 |
| 9 |  Detroit Lions | vs NO Against the spread, our pick is Detroit Lions -7.0. | 64% | 8 | 5.1 |
| 10 |  Baltimore Ravens | at IND Against the spread, our pick is Baltimore Ravens -3.5. | 63% | 7 | 4.4 |
| 11 |  Dallas Cowboys | at NYG Against the spread, our pick is Dallas Cowboys -3.0. | 63% | 6 | 3.8 |
| 12 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs GB Against the spread, our pick is Minnesota Vikings -1.5. | 63% | 5 | 3.2 |
| 13 |  Houston Texans | vs BUF Against the spread, our pick is Houston Texans +1.5. | 62% | 4 | 2.5 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs TB Against the spread, our pick is Cincinnati Bengals -3.5. | 61% | 3 | 1.8 |
| 15 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs ATL Against the spread, our pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5. | 60% | 2 | 1.2 |
| 16 |  Tennessee Titans | vs NYJ Against the spread, our pick is Tennessee Titans -1.5. | 60% | 1 | 0.6 |
Before kickoff
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HOW TO WIN YOUR CONFIDENCE POOL
Rank by win probability, not gut feel
The whole game is putting your biggest point values on your safest picks. A model ranking by straight-up win probability, six seasons of play-by-play efficiency behind it, is a more consistent ranking than a weekly gut-check, especially on games you have no strong opinion about.
Expected points shows where the confidence really is
Multiplying each game’s win probability by its assigned points and summing the slate tells you how much the model actually believes its own order, not just the order itself. A slate with a few 90%+ favorites and a lot of near-50% games will show a lower total than a slate full of solid-but-not-huge favorites, even with the same points assigned.
The bottom of the ranking matters more than it looks
Your 1- and 2-point games are near coin flips by definition, so getting them right or wrong barely moves your score. Where pools are actually won or lost is the middle of the ranking: the 60-70% games worth real points that are still genuinely uncertain.
QUESTIONS
Put your most points on your most confident pick. Our model's highest win probability this week is the Jacksonville Jaguars at 79%, so it gets the top 16 points on a 16-game slate. See the full ranking below.
Each week you rank every game by how confident you are and assign points, most points to your most confident pick, down to 1 point for your least confident, no repeats. You score the points for every game you get right. The season total decides the winner.
It's the sum of each game's win probability times the points assigned to it, which is what you'd expect to score on average if every game's true probability matched ours exactly. It's a transparency number showing how confident the model actually is in its own ranking, not a promise of what you'll score.
NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.3% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These confidence rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.
Playing straight-up pick’em instead? See our pick’em picks, ranked the same way, no points required.
PICK’EM PICKS →Picks and points are the model’s own, straight up. Past results. Not financial advice.