NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 9 2026: Seahawks at 15 Points

Q: How should I assign confidence points in Week 9?

Put your most points on your most confident pick. Our model's highest win probability this week is the Seattle Seahawks at 85%, so it gets the top 15 points on a 15-game slate. See the full ranking below.

Q: How does a confidence pool work?

Each week you rank every game by how confident you are and assign points, most points to your most confident pick, down to 1 point for your least confident, no repeats. You score the points for every game you get right. The season total decides the winner.

Q: What does 'expected points' mean?

It's the sum of each game's win probability times the points assigned to it, which is what you'd expect to score on average if every game's true probability matched ours exactly. It's a transparency number showing how confident the model actually is in its own ranking, not a promise of what you'll score.

Q: How accurate is the model?

NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.3% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These confidence rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.

THE SHORT ANSWER

For Week 9, put your top 15 points on the Seattle Seahawks over the Arizona Cardinals: our highest win probability of the week at 85%.

The full 15-game slate carries an expected 86.8 of 120 possible points if you follow our ranking and every win probability lands exactly as stated.

Your 1-point game (lowest confidence) is the Dallas Cowboys at 59%, effectively a coin flip.

WEEK 9 POINTS, RANKED 15 DOWN TO 1

Ranked by the model’s win probability, highest first. Points run from 15(most confident) down to 1. Expected points = win probability × points assigned, summed for the 86.8-point total above, the method behind it, not a promise.

#	Pick	Opponent	Win %	Points	Exp. Pts
1	Seattle Seahawks	vs ARI	85%	15	12.8
2	San Francisco 49ers	vs LV	79%	14	11.1
3	Philadelphia Eagles	vs NYG	74%	13	9.6
4	New England Patriots	vs GB	73%	12	8.8
5	Los Angeles Rams	at WAS	72%	11	7.9
6	Kansas City Chiefs	vs NYJ	71%	10	7.1
7	Chicago Bears	vs TB	69%	9	6.2
8	New Orleans Saints	vs CLE	67%	8	5.4
9	Denver Broncos	at CAR	67%	7	4.7
10	Houston Texans	at LAC	65%	6	3.9
11	Detroit Lions	at MIA	64%	5	3.2
12	Jacksonville Jaguars	at BAL	62%	4	2.5
13	Buffalo Bills	at MIN	61%	3	1.8
14	Cincinnati Bengals	at ATL	61%	2	1.2
15	Dallas Cowboys	at IND	59%	1	0.6

Before kickoff

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HOW TO WIN YOUR CONFIDENCE POOL

Rank by win probability, not gut feel

The whole game is putting your biggest point values on your safest picks. A model ranking by straight-up win probability, six seasons of play-by-play efficiency behind it, is a more consistent ranking than a weekly gut-check, especially on games you have no strong opinion about.

Expected points shows where the confidence really is

Multiplying each game’s win probability by its assigned points and summing the slate tells you how much the model actually believes its own order, not just the order itself. A slate with a few 90%+ favorites and a lot of near-50% games will show a lower total than a slate full of solid-but-not-huge favorites, even with the same points assigned.

The bottom of the ranking matters more than it looks

Your 1- and 2-point games are near coin flips by definition, so getting them right or wrong barely moves your score. Where pools are actually won or lost is the middle of the ranking: the 60-70% games worth real points that are still genuinely uncertain.