NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11 2026: Bills at 13 Points

Q: How should I assign confidence points in Week 11?

Put your most points on your most confident pick. Our model's highest win probability this week is the Buffalo Bills at 81%, so it gets the top 13 points on a 13-game slate. See the full ranking below.

Q: How does a confidence pool work?

Each week you rank every game by how confident you are and assign points, most points to your most confident pick, down to 1 point for your least confident, no repeats. You score the points for every game you get right. The season total decides the winner.

Q: What does 'expected points' mean?

It's the sum of each game's win probability times the points assigned to it, which is what you'd expect to score on average if every game's true probability matched ours exactly. It's a transparency number showing how confident the model actually is in its own ranking, not a promise of what you'll score.

Q: How accurate is the model?

NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.3% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These confidence rankings use the same model's win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee.

THE SHORT ANSWER

For Week 11, put your top 13 points on the Buffalo Bills over the Miami Dolphins: our highest win probability of the week at 81%.

The full 13-game slate carries an expected 66.2 of 91 possible points if you follow our ranking and every win probability lands exactly as stated.

Your 1-point game (lowest confidence) is the Carolina Panthers at 50%, effectively a coin flip.

WEEK 11 POINTS, RANKED 13 DOWN TO 1

Ranked by the model’s win probability, highest first. Points run from 13(most confident) down to 1. Expected points = win probability × points assigned, summed for the 66.2-point total above, the method behind it, not a promise.

#	Pick	Opponent	Win %	Points	Exp. Pts
1	Buffalo Bills	vs MIA	81%	13	10.5
2	Denver Broncos	vs LV	78%	12	9.4
3	Houston Texans	vs IND	74%	11	8.1
4	Dallas Cowboys	vs TEN	72%	10	7.2
5	Kansas City Chiefs	vs ARI	71%	9	6.4
6	Jacksonville Jaguars	at NYG	71%	8	5.7
7	Los Angeles Chargers	vs NYJ	70%	7	4.9
8	Chicago Bears	vs NO	69%	6	4.1
9	San Francisco 49ers	vs MIN	68%	5	3.4
10	Philadelphia Eagles	vs PIT	67%	4	2.7
11	Cincinnati Bengals	at WAS	65%	3	2.0
12	Detroit Lions	vs TB	65%	2	1.3
13	Carolina Panthers	vs BAL	50%	1	0.5

Before kickoff

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HOW TO WIN YOUR CONFIDENCE POOL

Rank by win probability, not gut feel

The whole game is putting your biggest point values on your safest picks. A model ranking by straight-up win probability, six seasons of play-by-play efficiency behind it, is a more consistent ranking than a weekly gut-check, especially on games you have no strong opinion about.

Expected points shows where the confidence really is

Multiplying each game’s win probability by its assigned points and summing the slate tells you how much the model actually believes its own order, not just the order itself. A slate with a few 90%+ favorites and a lot of near-50% games will show a lower total than a slate full of solid-but-not-huge favorites, even with the same points assigned.

The bottom of the ranking matters more than it looks

Your 1- and 2-point games are near coin flips by definition, so getting them right or wrong barely moves your score. Where pools are actually won or lost is the middle of the ranking: the 60-70% games worth real points that are still genuinely uncertain.