Steelers vs Eagles – Week 11 2026
PIT
PHI
PIT
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Eagles over the Steelers at 58% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: PHI 58%Our line: PHI -2.7
80% range around our line: PIT by 15 to PHI by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the PHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -2.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SPORTSBOOK | PIT | PHI | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.046Net EPA / play-0.196
-0.046 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (30)
+0.000 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.069 (24)
41.7% (21)Offense success %36.2% (31)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
PHI is our early forecast in PIT @ PHI (Week 11, 2026). The model assigns 58% confidence and projects PHI by 2.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@PHIW15 2024 | PIT 13, PHI 27 | PHI | W |
| PIT@PHIW8 2022 | PIT 13, PHI 35 | PHI | W |
| PHI@PITW5 2020 | PHI 29, PIT 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 58% win probability. The margin models project PHI by 2.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Philadelphia Eagles at 58% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PIT 13, PHI 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.046 against PHI -0.196.
