PIT @ PHI – Week 11 2026
PIT
PHI
PIT
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
PHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: PHI 64%Projected margin: -3.0
PHI
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.025Offense EPA / play+0.026
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.079
44.0%Offense success %43.1%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors PHI at 64%.
TEMPO
PHI runs no-huddle on 19% of plays -- a fast tempo that can exploit defensive fatigue.
RED ZONE
PHI converts 84% in the red zone vs 67% for PIT. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for PHI. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | PHI market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds3,224
1,564RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@PHIW15 2024 | PIT 13, PHI 27 | PHI | W |
| PIT@PHIW8 2022 | PIT 13, PHI 35 | PHI | W |
| PHI@PITW5 2020 | PHI 29, PIT 38 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs PHI
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles?
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability. The margin models project PHI by 3.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles game?
Philadelphia Eagles, 13-27 in Week 15 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Philadelphia Eagles?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PIT +0.007 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
