IND @ HOU – Week 11 2026
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 78%Projected margin: -9.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-9.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.072Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.131
46.3%Offense success %41.3%
45.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors HOU at 78%.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.5-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for HOU. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | HOU market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
M.Pittman80 rec · 784 yd · 7 TD
J.Downs58 rec · 566 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,101PASSyds3,041
1,845RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 78% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 9.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 30-38 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Indianapolis Colts or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: IND +0.068 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
