Colts vs Texans – Week 11 2026
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Texans over the Colts at 68% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: HOU 68%Our line: HOU -6.4
80% range around our line: IND by 11 to HOU by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the HOU game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -6.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
| SPORTSBOOK | IND | HOU | HOU WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.051 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
+0.099 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
42.2% (19)Offense success %42.4% (18)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: HOU at 68%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates 0.005 EPA/play on offense. IND's defense allows 0.099. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
Net-positive signal profile for HOU. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 68% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 6.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Houston Texans at 68% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: IND -0.150 against HOU +0.048.
