Buccaneers vs Lions – Week 11 2026
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Buccaneers at 68% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DET 68%Our line: DET -6.3
80% range around our line: TB by 11 to DET by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -6.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
67%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SPORTSBOOK | TB | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.029
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
-0.057 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
40.9% (23)Offense success %49.1% (4)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DET at 68%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 93% in the red zone vs 47% for TB. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.2 for TB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW2 2024 | TB 20, DET 16 | DET | L |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 68% win probability. The margin models project DET by 6.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 68% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TB 9, DET 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: TB -0.031 against DET +0.029.
