TB @ DET – Week 11 2026
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DET 63%Projected margin: -2.3
DET
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-2.3
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.013Defense EPA / play-0.010
42.4%Offense success %45.2%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DET at 63%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.081 EPA/play on offense. TB's defense allows 0.013. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 92% in the red zone vs 76% for TB. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.6 for TB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DET market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds4,564
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW2 2024 | TB 20, DET 16 | DET | L |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability. The margin models project DET by 2.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions game?
Detroit Lions, 9-24 in Week 7 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Detroit Lions?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: TB -0.022 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
