Lions vs Buccaneers – Week 6 2023
DET
TB
DET
AWAY
20@6
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Lions, 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: DET 50%Our line: DET +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
46.1% (6)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 14. Off by 14.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW2 2024 | TB 20, DET 16 | DET | L |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs TB
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.0. The market has DET at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 20, TB 6. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Detroit Lions were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.5 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, TB 9, DET 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against TB +0.007.
