Giants vs Bills – Week 6 2023
NYG
BUF
NYG
AWAY
9@14
BUF BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 9, Buffalo Bills 14.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Giants.
Model confidence: BUF 85%Our line: BUF -13.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -15.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
37.9% (30)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.9. Actual: 5. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.9. The market has BUF at -15.5.
Buffalo Bills won, NYG 9, BUF 14. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -15.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 15.5 points.
In Week 6, the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: NYG -0.155 against BUF +0.182.
