NYG @ BUF – Week 6 2023
NYG
BUF
NYG
AWAY
9@14
BUF BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 85%Our line: BUF -13.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-15.5
MARKET SPREAD
-13.9
OUR LINE
-561
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.174Offense EPA / play+0.108
-0.019Defense EPA / play-0.074
37.9%Offense success %49.0%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.9. Actual: 5. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +750 | -1200 |
| Our fair price | +561 | -561 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -15.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.11
OUR NUMBER
85%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
89%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.9. The market has BUF at -15.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: NYG -0.155 against BUF +0.182.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
