2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ TEN – Week 6 2023
BAL
TEN
BAL
AWAY
24@16
BAL +8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: -3.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 8. Off by 4.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BALW11 2020 | TEN 30, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES