TEN @ BAL – Week 4 2026
TEN
BAL
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
BAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BAL 75%Projected margin: -8.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-8.1
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.034
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.024
37.4%Offense success %44.6%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on BAL at 75% confidence.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.034 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
BAL is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.0 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.1-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in BAL's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds2,549
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TENW6 2023 | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL | W |
| TEN@BALW11 2020 | TEN 30, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BAL
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.1. The market has BAL at -8.5.
When do the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens game?
Baltimore Ravens, 24-16 in Week 6 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the Baltimore Ravens?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: TEN -0.260 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
