Titans vs Ravens – Week 4 2026
TEN
BAL
TEN
AWAY
18@24
BAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens.
A midweek injury update moved the Ravens from 78% to 77%.
Model confidence: BAL 77%Our line: BAL -9.9
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.228Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.149 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (5)
+0.078 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (16)
40.5% (25)Offense success %50.7% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TENW6 2023 | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL | W |
| TEN@BALW11 2020 | TEN 30, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 9.9. The market has BAL at -11.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, TEN 18, BAL 24. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -11.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 4, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 2.9 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, TEN 16 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: TEN -0.228 against BAL +0.168.
