PIT @ CLE – Week 4 2026
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 70%Projected margin: -3.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.025Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.096
44.0%Offense success %34.5%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT backed by epa edge at 70%.
EPA EDGE
PIT generates 0.025 EPA/play on offense. CLE's defense allows -0.096. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
PIT is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
PIT scores 1.8 points per drive vs 1.0 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in PIT's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds1,400
1,564RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@PITW8 2026 | — | PIT | — |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.8. The market has PIT at -2.5.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns game?
Cleveland Browns, 6-13 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Cleveland Browns?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
