Cowboys vs Texans – Week 4 2026
DAL
HOU
DAL
AWAY
34@30
DAL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.066Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.127 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
+0.193 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
47.9% (6)Offense success %42.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but DAL won. Projected margin was 6.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DALW11 2024 | HOU 34, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
| HOU@DALW14 2022 | HOU 23, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.7. The market has HOU at -3.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 34, HOU 30. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 1.3 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, DAL 10 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: DAL -0.066 against HOU +0.048.
