DAL @ HOU – Week 4 2026
DAL
HOU
DAL
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 77%Projected margin: -8.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-8.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.097Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.167Defense EPA / play-0.131
46.6%Offense success %41.3%
48.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on HOU at 77% confidence.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates -0.013 EPA/play on offense. DAL's defense allows 0.167. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
HOU is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.8-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
J.Ferguson82 rec · 600 yd · 8 TD
R.Flournoy40 rec · 475 yd · 4 TD
VS
4,552PASSyds3,041
1,628RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DALW11 2024 | HOU 34, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
| HOU@DALW14 2022 | HOU 23, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs HOU
Who is favored in Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 8.8. The market has HOU at -2.5.
When do the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans game?
Houston Texans, 34-10 in Week 11 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Dallas Cowboys or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: DAL -0.070 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
