NE @ BUF – Week 4 2026
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 62%Projected margin: -1.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.158Offense EPA / play+0.136
-0.047Defense EPA / play-0.016
48.4%Offense success %48.5%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors BUF (B-tier, 62% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against NE.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
VS
4,394PASSyds3,668
1,964RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW13 2026 | — | NE | — |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Who is favored in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 1.8. The market has BUF at -3.0.
When do the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 35-31 in Week 15 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New England Patriots or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
