Patriots vs Bills – Week 4 2026
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
29@26
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 1 Bills.
A midweek injury update moved the Bills from 69% to 70%.
Model confidence: BUF 70%Our line: BUF -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.077
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
45.4% (13)Offense success %49.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.1. The market has BUF at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 29, BUF 26. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 4, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 1.5 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, NE 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: NE +0.055 against BUF +0.077.
