DEN @ SF – Week 4 2026
DEN
SF
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 60%Projected margin: -0.3
DEN
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.050Offense EPA / play+0.088
-0.088Defense EPA / play+0.070
44.2%Offense success %48.3%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our C-tier play in DEN @ SF (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 59.8% confidence and projects DEN by 0.3. Market spread sits at DEN +2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds2,167
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@DENW3 2022 | SF 10, DEN 11 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs SF
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.3. The market has DEN at +2.5.
When do the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers game?
Denver Broncos, 10-11 in Week 3 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
