Broncos vs 49ers – Week 4 2026
DEN
SF
DEN
AWAY
14@24
SF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 3 49ers.
A midweek injury update moved the 49ers from 63% to 62%.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.041Net EPA / play+0.276
-0.066 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.209 (2)
-0.025 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
39.9% (26)Offense success %52.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 10. Off by 5.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
87°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, DEN 14, SF 24. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 0.4 below the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, SF 10, DEN 11 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: DEN -0.041 against SF +0.276.
