Dolphins vs Vikings – Week 4 2026
MIA
MIN
MIA
AWAY
10@15
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 77%Our line: MIN -9.9
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.111
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (28)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.210 (1)
37.6% (30)Offense success %35.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 5. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@MIAW6 2022 | MIN 24, MIA 16 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 9.9. The market has MIN at -10.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIA 10, MIN 15. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -10.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 4, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 7.0 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 24, MIA 16 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIA -0.224 against MIN +0.111.
