MIA @ MIN – Week 4 2026
MIA
MIN
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
MIN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: MIN 67%Projected margin: -4.2
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.100
41.9%Offense success %42.6%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our B-tier play in MIA @ MIN (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 67.5% confidence and projects MIN by 4.2. Market spread sits at MIN -7.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds1,632
1,837RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@MIAW6 2022 | MIN 24, MIA 16 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs MIN
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings?
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.2. The market has MIN at -7.5.
When do the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings game?
Minnesota Vikings, 24-16 in Week 6 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the Minnesota Vikings?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIA -0.105 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
