LAC @ SEA – Week 4 2026
LAC
SEA
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
SEA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SEA 76%Projected margin: -8.2
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-8.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.024Offense EPA / play+0.033
-0.083Defense EPA / play-0.117
43.1%Offense success %46.3%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on SEA at 76% confidence.
HIGH CONVICTION
SEA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.2-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Net-positive signal profile for SEA. Grade: A+.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds4,048
1,686RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@LACW7 2022 | SEA 37, LAC 23 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs SEA
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks?
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 8.2. The market has SEA at -3.0.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks game?
Seattle Seahawks, 37-23 in Week 7 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Seattle Seahawks?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: LAC +0.059 against SEA +0.150.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
