Chargers vs Seahawks – Week 4 2026
LAC
SEA
LAC
AWAY
23@30
SEA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 80%Our line: SEA -11.3
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.060
-0.207 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (25)
-0.057 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.133 (2)
37.8% (29)Offense success %41.5% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 11.3. Actual: 7. Off by 4.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-7.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@LACW7 2022 | SEA 37, LAC 23 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SEA by 11.3. The market has SEA at -7.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, LAC 23, SEA 30. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 3.2 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 37, LAC 23 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Seattle Seahawks: LAC -0.150 against SEA +0.060.
