Rams vs Eagles – Week 4 2026
LA
PHI
LA
AWAY
24@20
LA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Rams, 6 Eagles.
A midweek injury update moved the Rams from 58% to 59%.
Model confidence: LA 59%Our line: LA -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.114Net EPA / play-0.196
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (30)
-0.042 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.069 (24)
47.3% (7)Offense success %36.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 3.2. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@PHIW3 2025 | LA 26, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
| PHI@LAW12 2024 | PHI 37, LA 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@LAW5 2023 | PHI 23, LA 14 | PHI | W |
| LA@PHIW2 2020 | LA 37, PHI 19 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs PHI
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 3.2. The market has LA at -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 24, PHI 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Rams were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.0 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, LA 26, PHI 33 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.114 against PHI -0.196.
