LA @ PHI – Week 4 2026
LA
PHI
LA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: LA 60%Projected margin: -0.1
LA
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.145Offense EPA / play+0.026
-0.061Defense EPA / play-0.079
51.8%Offense success %43.1%
42.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
LA backed by epa edge at 60%.
EPA EDGE
LA generates 0.145 EPA/play on offense. PHI's defense allows -0.079. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 29% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
LA scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.7 for PHI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for LA. Grade: C.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford4707 yd · 46 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1252 yd · 10 TD
B.Corum746 yd · 6 TD
P.Nacua105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua129 rec · 1715 yd · 10 TD
D.Adams60 rec · 789 yd · 14 TD
C.Parkinson43 rec · 408 yd · 8 TD
X.Smith18 rec · 303 yd · 0 TD
VS
4,707PASSyds3,224
2,103RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@PHIW3 2025 | LA 26, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
| PHI@LAW12 2024 | PHI 37, LA 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@LAW5 2023 | PHI 23, LA 14 | PHI | W |
| LA@PHIW2 2020 | LA 37, PHI 19 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs PHI
Who is favored in Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles?
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.1. The market has LA at -1.5.
When do the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles game?
Philadelphia Eagles, 26-33 in Week 3 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Rams or the Philadelphia Eagles?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
