Final: Los Angeles Rams 37, Philadelphia Eagles 19.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles.
PICK: LA
TIER B
PICK WONATS ✓
LA 53%
PHI 47%
Model confidence: LA 53%
Our line: LA -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -0.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
LA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
46%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
SOURCE
LA
PHI
LA WIN %
Closing line
+111
-123
46.1%
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.162Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.089 (30)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (13)
44.5% (20)Offense success %40.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.9. Actual: 18. Off by 17.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.