49ers vs Jets – Week 2 2020
SF
NYJ
SF
AWAY
31@13
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 31, New York Jets 13.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: SF 59%Our line: SF -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
74%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
| SOURCE | SF | NYJ | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -301 | +259 | 73.6% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.042Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.008 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
46.0% (14)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 18. Off by 15.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs NYJ
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 2.9. The market has SF at -7.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 31, NYJ 13. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -7.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, NYJ 19, SF 32 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against NYJ -0.227.
