CIN @ CLE – Week 2 2020
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
30@35
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 52%Our line: CLE -0.6
CLE
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.6
OUR LINE
-107
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.049Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.092Defense EPA / play+0.077
43.6%Offense success %46.6%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 5. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +213 | -243 |
| Our fair price | +107 | -107 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CIN
Tee Higgins
WR
194.6 SEASON PPR
Tyler Boyd
WR
192.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
173.7 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2688 yd · 13 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon428 yd · 3 TD
Giovani Bernard416 yd · 3 TD
Samaje Perine301 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tee Higgins67 rec · 908 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Boyd79 rec · 841 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.6. The market has CLE at -6.0.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CIN -0.141 against CLE +0.011.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
