Broncos vs Steelers – Week 2 2020
DEN
PIT
DEN
AWAY
21@26
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 52%Our line: PIT -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
-19%
| SOURCE | DEN | PIT | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +232 | -267 | 71.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.147Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
38.8% (32)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 5. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@DENW2 2024 | PIT 13, DEN 6 | PIT | W |
| DEN@PITW5 2021 | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.8. The market has PIT at -6.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, DEN 21, PIT 26. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 2, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 13, DEN 6 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: DEN -0.147 against PIT +0.128.
