Falcons vs Cowboys – Week 2 2020
ATL
DAL
ATL
AWAY
39@40
DAL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 39, Dallas Cowboys 40.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: DAL 54%Our line: DAL -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -1.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SOURCE | ATL | DAL | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +131 | -145 | 57.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.042Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (25)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.060 (20)
43.2% (26)Offense success %45.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 1.4. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@ATLW9 2024 | DAL 21, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| ATL@DALW10 2021 | ATL 3, DAL 43 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.4. The market has DAL at -3.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, ATL 39, DAL 40. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DAL 21, ATL 27 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.042 against DAL -0.098.
