ATL @ DAL – Week 2 2020
ATL
DAL
ATL
AWAY
39@40
DAL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 54%Our line: DAL -1.4
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.4
OUR LINE
-118
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.042Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.021Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.063Defense EPA / play+0.060
43.2%Offense success %45.7%
47.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 1.4. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +131 | -145 |
| Our fair price | +118 | -118 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
Russell Gage72 rec · 786 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@ATLW9 2024 | DAL 21, ATL 27 | ATL | W |
| ATL@DALW10 2021 | ATL 3, DAL 43 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.4. The market has DAL at -3.0.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DAL 21, ATL 27 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.042 against DAL -0.098.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
