KC @ LAC – Week 2 2020
KC
LAC
KC
AWAY
23@20
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.184Offense EPA / play+0.027
+0.045Defense EPA / play+0.026
50.1%Offense success %43.2%
46.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -370 | +311 |
| Our fair price | -160 | +160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4 SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
312.8 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes4740 yd · 38 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Clyde Edwards-Helaire803 yd · 4 TD
Patrick Mahomes308 yd · 2 TD
Le'Veon Bell254 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Kelce105 rec · 1416 yd · 11 TD
Tyreek Hill87 rec · 1276 yd · 15 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.0. The market has KC at -8.5.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 16, KC 13 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.138 against LAC +0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
