Ravens vs Texans – Week 2 2020
BAL
HOU
BAL
AWAY
33@16
BAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 33, Houston Texans 16.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
BAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
76%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
| SOURCE | BAL | HOU | BAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -344 | +292 | 76.0% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.180Net EPA / play-0.071
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.099 (7)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.170 (31)
45.8% (16)Offense success %47.6% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.0. Actual: 17. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@BALW5 2025 | HOU 44, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs HOU
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.0. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 33, HOU 16. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 44, BAL 10 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against HOU -0.071.
