Texans vs Ravens – Week 5 2025
HOU
BAL
HOU
AWAY
44@10
HOU BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 44, Baltimore Ravens 10.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 6 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
41.3% (28)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but HOU won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 40.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@HOUW17 2024 | BAL 31, HOU 2 | BAL | W |
| HOU@BALW1 2023 | HOU 9, BAL 25 | BAL | W |
| BAL@HOUW2 2020 | BAL 33, HOU 16 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.9. The market has BAL at +2.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 44, BAL 10. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +2.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 31, HOU 2 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against BAL +0.010.
