Cowboys vs Jets – Week 5 2025
DAL
NYJ
DAL
AWAY
37@22
DAL BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 37, New York Jets 22.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Cowboys, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: DAL 60%Our line: DAL -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
46.6% (6)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 15. Off by 11.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@DALW2 2023 | NYJ 10, DAL 30 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NYJ
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.3. The market has DAL at +1.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 37, NYJ 22. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +1.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 3.8 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, NYJ 10, DAL 30 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against NYJ -0.274.
