2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ NYJ – Week 5 2025
DAL
NYJ
DAL
AWAY
37@22
DAL +15
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 60%Projected margin: -0.1
DAL
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 15. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Won · +$1.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@DALW2 2023 | NYJ 10, DAL 30 | DAL | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES