Vikings vs Browns – Week 5 2025
MIN
CLE
MIN
AWAY
21@17
MIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 21, Cleveland Browns 17.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Vikings, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
42.6% (23)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@MINW4 2021 | CLE 14, MIN 7 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CLE
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.6. The market has MIN at -3.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 21, CLE 17. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Minnesota Vikings were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 41.9, 6.4 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 14, MIN 7 in Week 4 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against CLE -0.094.
