2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ CLE – Week 5 2025
MIN
CLE
MIN
AWAY
21@17
MIN +4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIN 63%Projected margin: -2.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 2.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@MINW4 2021 | CLE 14, MIN 7 | CLE | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES