MIN @ CLE – Week 5 2025
MIN
CLE
MIN
AWAY
21@17
MIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.6
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-172
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.190
-0.100Defense EPA / play-0.096
42.6%Offense success %34.5%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 |
| Our fair price | -172 | +172 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5 SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1 SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@MINW4 2021 | CLE 14, MIN 7 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.6. The market has MIN at -3.5.
The model projects 41.9 combined points. The market total is 35.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 14, MIN 7 in Week 4 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
