2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ SEA – Week 5 2025
TB
SEA
TB
AWAY
38@35
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 61%Projected margin: 1.9
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but TB won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@TBW10 2022 | SEA 16, TB 21 | SEA | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES