Buccaneers vs Seahawks – Week 5 2025
TB
SEA
TB
AWAY
38@35
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Seattle Seahawks 35.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 4 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 61%Our line: SEA -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
42.4% (24)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but TB won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 6.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@TBW10 2022 | SEA 16, TB 21 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.7. The market has SEA at -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 38, SEA 35. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SEA 16, TB 21 in Week 10 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: TB -0.022 against SEA +0.150.
